Turkish Operation in Northern Iraq: Division Through Invasion?

 

By Ihsan Dagi

Ankara – EasternStar News Agency — A journalist close to military sources outlined Turkey’s strategic priorities as follow: to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, keep Kirkuk out of a Kurdish federal administration and fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

If this analysis reflects the position of Turkish high command then the main target is not the PKK, but Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani. This explains why a parliamentary mandate is sought before launching an operation into Iraq: The military favors not a limited and surgical strike against the PKK formations in northern Iraq but wants to establish a permanent presence in the region. So what is being contemplated is not a “hot pursuit,” which has been conducted many times without a parliamentary decree, but “sending troops to a foreign country,” which requires an a priori mandate from parliament. This unspoken objective that makes the government, aware of its implications on Turkey’s foreign affairs as well as domestic politics, reluctant to take the matter to parliament.

Hawks in the security establishment and the media who advocate a war in northern Iraq are sick of democracy, human rights and law, and of an international community that constantly remind them of these values, and would put an end to all these. They are happy that the EU process is somehow halted due to the Cyprus issue, which pleasantly provoked nationalist sentiments in Turkey. Now they want to finish off the job of isolating Turkey from the world by dragging it into a war.

I should warn these hawks that what is at stake is not only Turkish democracy but its territorial integrity. An invasion into northern Iraq will trigger a process through which Turkey may be divided. If they are prepared to take responsibility for this they should go ahead, but remember how the patriotic Unionists between 1914 and 1918 broke an empire into pieces and brought the nation to the edge of total destruction.

Capitalizing on the growing wave of nationalism and anti-Americanism among the people the hawks think that the Turkish people are ripe for a confrontation with the US without calculating the cost. Sending troops to northern Iraq is also viewed as an opportunity to corner the justice and Development Party (AK Party) government in the run-up to the parliamentary elections as a party incapable of taking decisions independent of the US and incompetent in fighting terrorism.

We need far-sighted policies. Take note, a Turkish invasion in northern Iraq will start a new period in Turkey’s Kurdish question, with popular uprisings and civil disturbances within Turkish borders enhancing the hands of the terror organization, the PKK. Furthermore such an invasion will be welcomed by the Iraqi Kurdish groups to set Turkey and the US against each other. In fact the Iraqi Kurds would regard a Turkish invasion as a golden opportunity to stretch their aims beyond the Iraqi borders. While the US still remains the principle ally of the Kurds, they want to finish the job of forming a “greater Kurdistan.” A possible Turkish invasion and the resulting Turkish-American confrontation will be the most desirable scenario for the Iraqi Kurds.

We would be mistaken if we think the US will tolerate a fait accompli in the north. On the contrary a US that is withdrawing from Iraq will be more adamant on its strategic interests in the north, since in the worst scenario in Iraq it is the northern Kurdish region that would be the defense line for the US. So the Turkish hawks had better not underestimate the resolve of the Americans to defend their Kurdish allies.

Is Turkey being pulled into a trap in northern Iraq? I can’t help but remember what happened to Iraq after the Kuwait invasion in 1990. The strongest Arab army of Saddam Hussein was destroyed and Iraq was effectively divided into three pieces, including a Kurdish area in the north.

Encouraged by a false signal, just like Saddam in 1990, the Turkish hawks in the security establishment may contemplate an invasion into the northern Iraq. If a massive invasion is staged, the Iraqi government will call on the UN Security Council and the international community at large to stop the invasion, a call to be taken up by the US. A campaign for sanctions against Turkey by the international community will be contemplated. Furthermore an armed clash between Turkish and US forces is not out of sight, pulling Turkey further not only into a conflict with the forces in Iraq but with the West as well.

Is this an undesired course of development for the radical nationalists in Turkey? I am afraid not. Hawks on both sides of the border want a war that will destroy Turkey, even if it wins on the ground.