The Assyrian Democratic Organization
Assyrians within and outside of Iraq, eligible to vote in this month?s Iraqi national elections, are grappling with the decision to choose one of the four possible certified election slates representing the ?Assyrian? or ?ChaldoAssyrian? groups. The three major coalitions are numbered as election tickets 139, 148 & 204.
In the elections, numbers are what matter. In a purely number game the formation of coalitions, new political parties, slates, and candidates are only political maneuvers to skew the numbers in favor of one or more groups or reduce the chances of a strong contender.
Get your calculators out and let?s do some simple math!
Number of votes needed to win a seat to the Iraqi National Assembly (INA) is calculated by dividing the total number of voters by the total number of seats:
15,000,000 voters (divided by) 275 (seats in the INA) = 54,545
Hence, for every seat in the INA any Assyrian candidate or coalition needs 54,545 votes to secure a position, assuming all eligible voters do show up at the polls on January 30. This threshold may be as low as 30,000 as more insurgents attack people and places between now and January 30th.
Since there are at least half a million eligible–over the age of 18– Christian Iraqi voters, one can safely assume that as many as 10 seats should go to the Assyrians, Chaldeans, ChaldoAssyrians, or whatever name fancies the voters these days.
In order to obtain six or more seats in the INA, there are only two possible strategies to insure a majority victory for any Assyrian candidate:
1. To obtain the votes of 180,000 ? 500,000 Iraqis.
2. To run along with non-Christian candidates with greater recognition & election funds.
To secure as many as 180,000 votes or more any candidate needs the support of all Assyrians within the three major churches (East, Chaldean, & Syrian). The Assyrian Democratic Party adopted this strategy last month and joined an enormous Chaldean coalition known as the al-Rafidayn National Coalition. The list has been certified as Election Ticket # 204. Mr. Yonadam Kanna, Secretary General of the ADM, holds the first position on this list. The most popular Assyrian political party in Iraq, the Assyrian Democratic Movement, is in the running for as many available seats in the INA as can be grabbed on January 30th.
The second strategy is used by several political parties in North Iraq. These include Bet-Nahrain Democratic Party (BNDP) under Mr. Romeo Hakkari, Assyrian Patriotic Party (APP) under Mr. Nimrod Baito, the Chaldean Democratic Union Party under Mr. Abd al-Ahad Afram. All three are sponging off of the Kurds since they have included their names with Masoud Barazani and Jalal Talabani?s combined ticket. In effect these three groups do not depend on any Assyrian voters as every Kurdish vote can bring them closer to a place in the Iraqi National Assembly.
So far we have reviewed the ?Winning Strategies? in the January elections. But as we said earlier, elections are also a game of numbers and political maneuvers to reduce chances of another group?s popularity.
The inclusion of the BNDP, APP, and CDUP under the Kurdish ticket may actually help bring greater attention to election slate #204. Therefore, to reduce the chances of ADM?s victory another strategy had to be put into effect, one resembling Ralph Nader?s back in the U.S. 2000 presidential elections which took away many of Democratic Party?s votes without jeopardizing the Republicans? standing at the polls that year.
Enter Sargon Dadesho, the nemesis of Yonadam Kanna, and his mouthpiece, the AssyriaSat television program!
Election Ticket # 139 is called the Assyrian National Assembly. Its candidates are still unknown, but the groups running under this ticket have been identified at press time as the:
? Assyrian United Front
? Assyrian National Congress
? Assyrian Bet-Nahrain Democratic Party
? Assyrian Democratic Movement country line
? AssyriaSat
? Bet-Nahrain Democratic Party U.S.A.
? Ashur Club, Bet-Nahrain Club
? Bet-Nahrain Club, Bet-Nahrain Democratic Party
? Bet-Nahrain Youth club
? Assyrian Athletic Club
In short, Election Ticket #139 is a coalition of Sargon Dadesho followers whose only purpose is to shrink the number of votes cast for the popular Assyrian Democratic Movement in Iraq and increase the chances of other ?Christian? groups including those associated with the Kurds, Communists, and independent candidates.
The ten groups noted above, which incidentally include a television station and the misleading name of the Assyrian Democratic Movement ?country line, are listed on the assyrianassembly.org website. A little investigation reveals that the website is registered to Mr. Ninous Bebla, a technical director at Sargon Dadesho?s AssyriaSat studios in California.
Since there is very little chance that Ticket 139 can capture a substantial number of voters in the diaspora, to disassociate oneself from Sargon Dadesho this late in the game is an impossible task for Mr. Odisho Malko Giwargis, the chief nominee on Election Ticket #139. It would be in his group?s best interest to align himself either with #204 or a non-Assyrian coalition similar to what was done by Sargon Dadesho?s prot?g?, Bet-Nahrain Democratic Party (BNDP)?s Romeo Hakkari.
Election Ticket #148 is carried by the Bet-Nahrain Democratic Coalition (I’itilaf al-Rafidayn al-Demoqrati) and includes two political parties: the Coalition of Patriotic Bet-Nahrain and the Independent Syriac Movement Coalition ( Harakat al-Tajammo’ al-Suryan al-Mustaqil). The Coalition has presented 12 candidates. There is not much known about the individual make up of this group. In a recent internet posting the mission of this group was described as “recognizing our people’s national idenity in the Iraqi Constitution and to go beyond the religious factions that separate our peole.” The group also wishes to support clergymen from all sects and encourage them to unite all churches.
A few Assyrians hold disaffection with the Assyrian Democratic Party combined with the visceral dislike of Mr. Yonadam Kanna ? sentiments indoctrinated by the AssyriaSat programming and Mr. Dadesho?s anti-ADM propaganda. These voters may wish to effectuate a change by casting their vote for an alternative to status quo in Iraq. The truth is that none of the election slates, especially #139, can guarantee the rights of the Assyrian people unless a majority of 10 seats are won by a single group or coalition.
To have Kurdish-friendly or Dadesho mouthpieces in power and in charge in the Iraqi National Assembly is a truly frightening prospect for anyone entrenched in the Assyrian activism.
In Iraq the Assyrian Democratic Movement has proven itself as a progressive, open-minded defender of the unity of all Assyrian people mostly divided along the lines of the Chaldean Church, Syrian Churches, and the two Churches of the East. Its humanitarian efforts have benefited the health and education of the Assyrian population in the north, and it is a vocal guardian of the women?s rights in Iraq.
Zowaa, as with any other political party, has in the past and will in the future be held accountable for one or more unfair political decisions. But it should be applauded for providing the Assyrians a center of gravity upon which they safely survived the transformation from a Baathist regime to freedom. Other groups, on the other hand, have thrown their hats in with the non-Assyrian Moslem neighbors. They are willing to align themselves with anyone as long as they threaten the Assyrian-Chaldean unity under the false pretense of promoting the Assyrian identity.
I, too, may at times be influenced by emotional appeals of one or more candidates or coalitions, but I am certain that the calculator in my hand does not lie. A majority of the ten seats must be won by a single group with proven experience.
I stand today among many Assyrians who have a burning desire to play an important part in this and any other elections taking place in the Assyrian homeland. Although on the tombs of my grandparents in Iran is inscribed the name of the town of Alqosh, neither I nor my father were born in Iraq, so I must stand aside and only watch the outcome of these votes from afar. I have questioned ADM?s leadership on many occasions in this column and will continue to do so in the future. Nevertheless, on January 30th if I could vote for the future of the Assyrian people in Iraq and the unity of all Syriac-speaking people in Bet-Nahrain, I will have proudly given a chance for the ADM to represent me with a minimum of 10 seats in the Iraqi National Assembly by casting my ballot for Election Ticket #204.
