Analysis: Iraqi opposition established (11/04/2003)

The assassination of Shiite leader Majid al-Khoei in An Najaf on Thursday dealt a harsh blow to the Iraqi opposition and the suicide attacks against coalition troops in Baghdad further complicated the situation on the field. But such events are bound to prompt Washington and London to help set up a transitional government as quickly as possible. Fifteen opposition leaders are expected to attend a meeting Saturday in the southern town of An Nasiriyah during which a temporary government might be declared.

Despite confusion and worries stemming from the existing chaos and power vacuum, Iraqis are largely relieved by the toppling of the Baath dictatorship. Many Iraqi exiles are returning home, including leading opposition figures, while others, including former Baathists, were waiting for the situation to clear up.

In the meantime, opposition groups are competing to win over popular support and recognition by publishing their political programs in Arab newspapers and on internet sites. It is clear that they all hope for a system of free elections, under which public liberties would be released, including the freedom of expression, forming political parties and unions and publishing private newspapers of which Iraqis have been deprived since the Baath party captured power in 1968.

The popular base of old non-Kurdish political parties which were prominent 35 years ago, including the Islamic Daawa (call) Party and the Communist Party, still remain unknown. But the two parties which strongly opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq are bound to face difficulties to re-establish and reaffirm themselves. The same applies to the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq led by Baker al-Hakim which Washington wants to marginalize due to its strong links with Iran.

Al-Hakim is trying to promote himself as the representative of Iraqi Shiites, but many Shiite groups do not recognize him as such. In the meantime, Washington is trying to find alternative representatives of the Shiite community, which constitutes 60 percent of the Iraqi population.

Until things clear up, opposition groups seem to share the same concern, namely reset foot inside the country and rally popular support. That also applies to Kurdish, Turkemen and Assyrian as well as secular groups.

In addition to Al-Khoei who had just returned from London to Iraq, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress Ahmed Chalabi arrived in An Nasiriyah at the head of a group of his partisans. The former chief of the Iraqi intelligence Gen. Wafic al-Samarai has reportedly arrived in Erbil in north Iraq, and the CIA has reportedly moved former Iraqi army commander Gen. Nizar al-Khazirgi secretly from Norway where he was under house arrest, to Kuwait.

Former Baathist journalist Saad al-Bazaz started publishing his private newspaper al-Zaman from the south of “liberated” Iraq, while scores of Iraqi exiled began arriving in Kuwait and Iraq’s Kurdistan hoping that a new page was turned in Iraq’s political history.

Despite deep worries about Iraq’s future and lack of confidence in U.S. promises that the Iraqis will be left free to rule themselves and exploit their huge natural wealth, there is a strong common conviction that the dictatorship will not return to Iraq, especially that the U.S. administration seems keen on spreading an atmosphere of liberalism in the country.

But differences between power centers inside the United States are bound to complicate things. While the Pentagon supports Chalabi’s INC, the State Department is not keen on giving him a major role in post-Saddam Iraq as it prefers the National Reconciliation Movement of Iyad Allawi and the grouping of Independent opposition leaders led by Adnan Pachachi.

Chalabi was sparing no effort to win legitimacy for his party. He rushed to Iraq a week after the outbreak of the war at the head of 700 of his partisans to provide humanitarian assistance to the Iraqi people and help restore law and order in the liberated areas. At the same time, the INC started a campaign to set up the so-called “Forces of Liberated Iraq” in the south and center of the country urging Iraqis to enlist.

Before his assassination, al-Kkoei announced that he was administering the affairs of Najaf for a temporary period with the help of 700 local youth. He said he established a local committee to help secure law and order in other liberated provinces in cooperation with local tribes leaders.

Competition between the traditional and new Iraqi opposition factions remains the main reason behind the weakness of these groups which lack popular base inside Iraq. The Iraqi opposition has suffered from chronic weaknesses and schisms for decades due to personal ambitions, sectarian and ethnic interests and the absence of clear political programs.

Copyright © 2001-2003 United Press International