“There is a good prospect of a solution on Friday but no guarantee to the outcome in the end and also a temporary stop if negotiations are going in the wrong way,” Zalm said in an interview ahead of a summit meeting of EU leaders here Thursday and Friday.
With a decision on Turkey only hours away, the European Parliament voted Wednesday for the EU to open talks “without undue delay.” It voted, 407 to 262 with 29 abstentions, to pass the resolution, which is nonbinding but nevertheless likely to influence leaders ahead of the start of the summit meeting.
Jos? Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, said in Parliament during a debate: “It is now time for the European Council to honor its commitment to Turkey and announce the opening of accession negotiations. A clear date should be indicated.” He added: “We accept that the accession process is open-ended, and its outcome cannot be guaranteed beforehand.”
Meanwhile, Jan Peter Balkenende, the Dutch prime minister, said in the Dutch Parliament that he expected a “yes” Friday but that the negotiations would take years before Turkey could become a full member.
The issue of Turkish accession will dominate the summit talks. Leaders arrive Thursday and will devote discussions over dinner to the issue of Turkish membership, with a decision possible late Thursday or on Friday.
Their embrace of Turkey will begin the process to end Ankara‘s 40-year wait to join the EU, but the conditions they will apply will require a profound transformation of its economy and society beyond the political and human rights reforms already achieved. The summit talks will also cover these topics:
Bulgaria and Romania: EU leaders will give final blessing to end accession talks with the two countries and set a date for signing an accession treaty with each. This would pave the way for them to join the EU in 2007 or 2008.
Croatia: The EU is likely to agree to start accession negotiations with Croatia, probably in April, that are likely to be conditional on Croatia‘s cooperation over war crimes investigations.
The EU budget: The EU is in the middle of heated negotiations about its 2007-2013 budget. Rich countries are seeking to limit spending to 1 percent of Union GDP, but other countries – mainly in the poor, former Communist East – and the European Commission want to expand it.
The United Nations: European leaders will meet with the UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan, in what is seen as tacit support for Annan, who is facing tough criticisms in the United States.
The fight against terrorism: EU foreign ministers met in Brussels earlier this week ahead of the summit talks, and the Dutch government said they had “provisionally settled many elements” that would be agreed by government leaders on Thursday and Friday.
Foreign ministers are due to discuss Ukraine and the Middle East in a separate meeting Thursday evening.
On Turkey, the issues at stake in the negotiations are the following:
Whether and when negotiations should begin. EU governments are likely to say “yes” and start talks around October next year.
Whether the EU should guarantee that the talks can end in full membership. Some Europeans want the aim of the talks to be a second-class status for Turkey, stopping short of full membership. Some are also pushing for extensive powers, likely to be granted, to call off talks if Turkey backslides on human rights reforms.
When the talks can end. The EU is likely to insist that talks last 10 to 15 years or longer, to allow Turkey time to make further significant economic and civil reforms, and give the EU time to change its own internal financial structures.
Under current EU rules, rich countries are obliged to subsidize poorer regions, but these countries do not want the huge burden that Turkey would represent.
Turkey has GDP per head roughly one third the EU average.
Other tough restrictions, such as checks on migration flows.
One sticking point is Turkey‘s refusal to recognize the republic of Cyprus.
Cyprus, which joined the EU in May, has suggested it may veto Turkey‘s bid for membership if Ankara does not recognize it.
Turkey denies that recognition should be a condition for membership. But the EU insists that Turkey will have to sign a protocol recognizing all 10 member states that joined the EU in May and that this will mean a tacit recognition of Cyprus.
Dutch sources said Wednesday that Turkey would sign the so-called Ankara protocol soon, probably Friday.
Most EU governments support Ankara‘s bid for membership, but public opposition has hardened in some countries in recent months.
This has come over fears about immigration and the threat posed by Turkey to a European cultural identity, as well as to European budgets and jobs.
“The big issue at stake is to have sufficient guarantees if Turkey becomes a member that it is not disturbing important policies in the countries,” Zalm said.
The Netherlands will be an important voice around the table as the EU countries seek to end months of rancorous debate and come to a compromise on Turkey.
The tough position on immigration reflects special concerns in the Netherlands where public opinion has soured.
But the calls for curbs on population movements reflect a broader toughening of European identity – a general unease about embracing a large Muslim nation into the EU fold.
There is also a growing fear that bringing Turkey within the EU’s borders would trigger new waves of migration into countries that are already struggling to digest large populations of migrants.
These fears have grown strong in countries such as Germany and France, but the French and German governments remain supporters of Ankara‘s bid.
President Jacques Chirac of France faces an especially tough task in winning a skeptical French electorate around.
French opinion polls show that a majority of voters oppose Turkish membership. In Germany, the CDU opposition party has called for the EU to give Turkey a “privileged partnership” but not full membership.
Zalm is insisting that powers be devolved to individual countries so that each capital is free to decide when to lift immigration restrictions on Turkey.
“We need long transition periods, and must be able to decide for ourselves when there can be free movement of people,” said Zalm, referring to strict controls imposed by the Dutch government to allay fears about immigration.
16-12-2004
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The Assyrian Democratic Organization
